Market & Trends

Is the market big enough? Is it growing or shrinking? Why now and not five years ago? Firelent gives you a structured first answer — the drivers, the risks and the numbers that matter — so you know exactly what to verify before you commit.

Ask a market question#

Open Research on your dashboard and choose Market & Trends. Answers are free and appear in the chat; follow-up questions in the same chat build on them. See Competitors for how research works in detail.

What to ask#

• The verdict first: “Is this market growing?” or “Is now a good time to start…?”
• The drivers: what pushes demand up — prices, laws, habits, technology.
• The risks: what could shrink it, and who could squeeze you.
• The numbers to verify: ask for the three to five figures that decide it, and where to find each.

Is refurbished smartphone repair and resale a growing market in Germany? Give me the main growth drivers, the biggest risks, and three numbers I should verify before deciding, with where to find each.

Ending with “…and where to find each” turns a general answer into a checklist you can work through.

Size it from the bottom up#

Big market numbers — “a €2 billion market” — rarely help a small business. What you need is how much of it you can reach. Work it out from the bottom up:

Step	Example: a phone repair shop
People you can realistically reach	60,000 people within 15 minutes of the shop
How many need it per year	About 1 in 10 repairs or replaces a phone → 6,000
How many might choose you	5% in year one → 300 customers
What each spends	€90 on average
Your realistic market	300 × €90 = €27,000 in year one

Every line is an assumption — which is the point. Ask Firelent to build this with you (“size my market bottom-up, showing each assumption”), then replace each assumption with something you checked. As a cross-check, compare it with a top-down figure from an industry report: if the two are more than about three times apart, one of your assumptions is off.

Spot the trend#

• Look for the “why now”. A new law, a price jump, a habit change, a technology that just got cheap. If nothing changed, ask why the opportunity is still open.
• Separate the trend from the hype. A trend shows up in what people do and pay for, not just in headlines.
• Check the seasons. Many businesses earn most of their money in a few months — know which ones before you plan your launch.

Check it yourself#

Source	What it tells you
Google Trends	Whether interest in a search term is rising or falling, and when in the year it peaks — shown as relative interest from 0 to 100, not absolute numbers
Official statistics — Destatis in Germany (its GENESIS-Online database is free), Eurostat for the EU	Population, households, businesses, spending and prices you can quote
Industry associations and chambers	Market reports and surveys for your trade
Annual reports of listed companies	Real revenue and growth of the big players in your market
The original study	If an answer names a survey, find it and read what it actually says

Use at least two independent sources for any number you'll rely on. If they disagree, write down both and why.

Make the call#

Finish with a one-page decision for yourself:

1. The verdict in one sentence — go, not now, or no.
2. The three facts it rests on, each with its source.
3. The biggest risk, and how you'd notice it early.
4. The cheapest next step to test it — a landing page, ten customer conversations, one weekend at a market stall.

Ask Firelent to draft this page from your research: “Summarise this as a one-page go/no-go decision.”

FAQ#

How current is the information?#

It depends on what the AI model learned, and it can be a year or more behind. Anything that changes fast — prices, laws, subsidies — needs checking.

Can Firelent read a market report I have?#

Uploading files isn't supported yet. Paste the key passages into your message and ask your question about them.

Next steps#